The Underdog Hypothesis & Starting Quality

It has been found that later born ( BQ 4) players reach higher elite levels than early born (BQ 1) players in many sports such as NHL, Rugby Union and Cricket. This ‘effect’ is potentially explained by the ‘ Underdog Hypothesis’ or the ‘Advantage of Disdavantage’. It states, in a similar way to how the ‘ Younger Sibling Effect’ works, that the constant extra challenge improves players more over time.

This makes perfect sense. But do we attribute too much to the Underdog Hypothesis? Could there be another reason when a lot of RAE and associated effects are ‘baked in’ from the start.

(By Osmar Schindler (1869-1927))

Starting Quality Effect?

Lets take a typical age group squad of 20 players. Typically the Birth Quarter breakdown wpuld be Q1 7, Q2 7, Q3 4, Q4 2.

The 2 Q4 and the 4 Q3 will have done well to be selected as they are likely to be smaller, weaker and slower. To be selected they have to be better in other ways.

Why do Q4 graduate at a much higher rate? Is it simply because they are just better quality from the start and have more potential. Why do Q1 graduate at a much lower rate? Is it simply because they are just lower quality from the start with less potential. A larger group of 7 is more likely to be dilute in quality than the smaller group of 2.

Should we simply select less Q1 to improve the quality and improve their graduation rate and select more Q4 as we are missing some completely from the pathway.

How difficult would this be for a County Age Group (CAG) squad of 20? 

Answer NOT that difficult, if there is a will to do it.

Select 2 less Q1 & Q2 from 7

Select 1 more Q3

Select 3 more Q4

* This doesn’t have to be a strict quota each year or selection point. It could be a Rolling Average Over 5 Years to allow for some flexibility in the system. But it does need to be strictly enforced by NGBs.

Would we lose the Underdog Effect?

No. Even with 5:5:5:5 then the 5 Q4 are up against 15 older kids. They will still have to battle it out. It’s not 2 against 18, which is obviously harder for the 2, but only by a sixth (17%).

Swings and Roundabouts 

What you lose (-17%) on the underdog effect swings you gain on the (+150%) more Q4 roundabouts. Also fewer Q1s will be spared dropping out of the pathway at later stages.