Relative Age Effect in Men’s Cricket Pathway (U15-U19)

Relative Age Effect is found at U15, U17 and U19s in the Men’s cricket pathway.

Birth Quarters Q1 & Q2 are found to be much higher than Q3 & Q4 at each stage of the pathway. 

U15

ENG Qtr% Q1 35.8, Q2 35.2, Q3 19.5, Q4 9.4 

U17

ENG Qtr% Q1 37.3, Q2 27.2, Q3 20, Q4 15.5 

 U19

ENG Qtr% Q1 32, Q2 28.6, Q3 22.3, Q4 17.1

As you might expect RAE does reduce as you go through the age groups but not by as much as might be hoped for.

In a 2019 interview with the Telegraph, Mo Bobat, then England’s Player Identification Lead, said:

… England now take proper account of the relative age effect – the differing rates of maturation of young players, partly because some can be born 364 days later than those in the school year – in selecting age group sides. “I don’t see that as rocket science. It’s probably indicative of us being not in a good place previously – and I don’t just mean us, sport in general – that we didn’t think relative age effect was significant.”

I think that Mo Bobat has been excellent in how he has used data and evidence based research to improve the process of evaluating players but in terms of Relative Age Effect I disagree with the statement above. Young Lions (U19s) World Cup squads since 2014 have worse levels of RAE than before.

What has been done is data capture and raising awareness. This won’t change any of these percentage values! If there was one thing that you could easily implement that would have the most effect it is to mandate the use of Age Ordered Bibs in all Trials, from County Age Group U10s up to England U19s.

How do we compare to Australia?

Yes there is RAE in Australia. A recent study ( Connor, Renshaw, Doma, 2019) shows RAE across the Australian cricket pathway from U15 to U19 for men and U15 to U18 for women.

U15

ENG Qtr% Q1 35.8, Q2 35.2, Q3 19.5, Q4 9.4 

AUS Qtr% Q1 36.1, Q2 28.1, Q3 20.1, Q4 15.7 

U17

ENG Qtr% Q1 37.3, Q2 27.2, Q3 20, Q4 15.5 

AUS Qtr% Q1 35.5, Q2 24.3, Q3 19.9, Q4 20.3

U19

ENG Qtr% Q1 32, Q2 28.6, Q3 22.3, Q4 17.1

AUS Qtr% Q1 34.2, Q2 25.9, Q3 19.7, Q4 20.2

They are bad. We are worse.

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